Ulysse Sabbagh

One of our analysts decided to move to Brooklyn and had to figure out what to do with her apartment in Manhattan.

The joys of modern medicine — hat tip to the think-outside-the-box people who thought about that… “why don’t we just freeze ‘em?”. From Kottke: 

When this patient loses his pulse, the attending surgeon will, as usual, crack his chest open and clamp the descending aorta. But then, instead of trying to coax the heart back into activity, the surgeon will start pumping the body full of ice-cold saline at a rate of at least a gallon a minute. Within twenty minutes (depending on the size of the patient, the number of wounds, and the amount of blood lost), the patient’s brain temperature, measured using a probe in the ear or nose, will sink to somewhere in the low fifties Fahrenheit.

At this point, the patient, his circulatory system filled with icy salt water, will have no blood, no pulse, and no brain activity. He will remain in this state of suspended animation for up to an hour, while surgeons locate the bullet holes or stab wounds and sew them up. Then, after as much as sixty minutes without a heartbeat or a breath, the patient will be resuscitated.

The joys of modern medicine — hat tip to the think-outside-the-box people who thought about that… “why don’t we just freeze ‘em?”. From Kottke: 

When this patient loses his pulse, the attending surgeon will, as usual, crack his chest open and clamp the descending aorta. But then, instead of trying to coax the heart back into activity, the surgeon will start pumping the body full of ice-cold saline at a rate of at least a gallon a minute. Within twenty minutes (depending on the size of the patient, the number of wounds, and the amount of blood lost), the patient’s brain temperature, measured using a probe in the ear or nose, will sink to somewhere in the low fifties Fahrenheit.

At this point, the patient, his circulatory system filled with icy salt water, will have no blood, no pulse, and no brain activity. He will remain in this state of suspended animation for up to an hour, while surgeons locate the bullet holes or stab wounds and sew them up. Then, after as much as sixty minutes without a heartbeat or a breath, the patient will be resuscitated.

Authority. Used to come from God and other religious entities. Some enlightened folks told us we had a moral compass within ourselves. So we had the power to make the best decisions. Now? Facebook. 

Yuval Noah Harari for the FT: 

Now, a fresh shift is taking place. Just as divine authority was legitimised by religious mythologies, and human authority was legitimised by humanist ideologies, so high-tech gurus and Silicon Valley prophets are creating a new universal narrative that legitimises the authority of algorithms and Big Data. This novel creed may be called ‘Dataism’.

Authority. Used to come from God and other religious entities. Some enlightened folks told us we had a moral compass within ourselves. So we had the power to make the best decisions. Now? Facebook. 

Yuval Noah Harari for the FT: 

Now, a fresh shift is taking place. Just as divine authority was legitimised by religious mythologies, and human authority was legitimised by humanist ideologies, so high-tech gurus and Silicon Valley prophets are creating a new universal narrative that legitimises the authority of algorithms and Big Data. This novel creed may be called ‘Dataism’.

Here’s an idea from Farnam Street: 

Key point number one in this memo is that the future should be viewed not as a fixed outcome that’s destined to happen and capable of being predicted, but as a range of possibilities and, hopefully on the basis of insight into their respective likelihoods, as a probability distribution.

Here’s an idea from Farnam Street: 

Key point number one in this memo is that the future should be viewed not as a fixed outcome that’s destined to happen and capable of being predicted, but as a range of possibilities and, hopefully on the basis of insight into their respective likelihoods, as a probability distribution.

The common idea is that willpower is limited. After 4 hours studying mathematics, you  are likely to feel like entering a coma-like state on your couch and binge on Netflix. 

However, Carol Dweck and team believe otherwise:

It appears ego depletion may be just another example of the way belief drives behavior. Thinking we’re spent makes us feel worse, while rewarding ourselves with an indulgence makes us feel better. It’s not the sugar in the lemonade that produces the sustained mental stamina, but rather the placebo effect at work.

Maybe willpower is an emotion?

Michael Inzlicht, a professor of psychology at the University of Toronto and the principal investigator at the Toronto Laboratory for Social Neuroscience, believes willpower is not a finite resource but instead acts like an emotion. Just as we don’t 'run out' of joy or anger, willpower ebbs and flows based on what’s happening to us and how we feel. Viewing willpower through this lens has profound implications.

The common idea is that willpower is limited. After 4 hours studying mathematics, you  are likely to feel like entering a coma-like state on your couch and binge on Netflix. 

However, Carol Dweck and team believe otherwise:

It appears ego depletion may be just another example of the way belief drives behavior. Thinking we’re spent makes us feel worse, while rewarding ourselves with an indulgence makes us feel better. It’s not the sugar in the lemonade that produces the sustained mental stamina, but rather the placebo effect at work.

Maybe willpower is an emotion?

Michael Inzlicht, a professor of psychology at the University of Toronto and the principal investigator at the Toronto Laboratory for Social Neuroscience, believes willpower is not a finite resource but instead acts like an emotion. Just as we don’t 'run out' of joy or anger, willpower ebbs and flows based on what’s happening to us and how we feel. Viewing willpower through this lens has profound implications.

So no one told you life what gonna be this way...

Frantically refreshing Twitter at 4am, I thought to myself: “Is Florida going to do it again?”

Looked like it: 91% in and Trump was 100 000 votes ahead.

Crap cake! I woke up and the NYT’s headline was all: Trump Triumphs.

What the fuck happened?

What can we understand from that? how can we prevent such people to rise to the top in other countries? (I’m talking to you, chère France).

We’ll first get an overview of the situation by analysing how some people/institutions/ideas have changed in status. I’ll then try and summarise a few lessons and predictions for the future. Finally, I rounded up some interesting articles and very succinctly summarised them.

Losers

• Women — a sexist can become President
• minorities — a racist can become president
• global warming — looks like coal is coming back, Tesla is going down
• Anti-establishment — from the Tea Party in the US to Dieudonné in France, it looks like anti-establishment types do not realise they are a necessary part of the system and that they're not substantially changing anything. An illusion, really. Radically changing things will require blood/violence and Trump/Brexit is not what they're looking for (You Are Not So Smart)
• the democratic party — Hillary was a bad candidate, at least badly timed; mired in scandals, a technocrat/establishment figure (I believe Bernie would have won, he was a guy and a populist)
• liberal democracy — Fukuyama's End of History... maybe one of the most tunnel-visioned idea of all time is now officially (and thankfully) dead; the FT still published a piece by Francis though
• experts, pundits — they failed to predict Brexit,  Trump, the FARC vote in Colombia... what's next?
• pseudo-intellectuals — West Wing-watching, glasses-wearing, Sciences Po-attending people have lost a lot of political relevance (that includes me)
• Good as in Good vs. Evil — thinking that Clinton was “good” and Trump “evil” is a very relative/ambiguous notion that has little substance. The world is a multifaceted gem and not a binary, black and white system.
• Pollsters and Nate Silver — his model was flawed, see Nassim Taleb's rebuttal (that I don't understand but a lot of mathematicians seem to agree with him, including this blogger). Only 10% of people responded to polls. Polls are flawed.
• the Truth — lying will not prevent you from getting elected, we truly live in a post-factual world + in the social media world, truth is irrelevant for filter bubbles rule over the content you consume (NiemanLab)

• White rural voters — the most important demographic in US elections
• Twitter — losing users and cash, yes but increasing in relevance (Slate)
• Facebook — people are starting to realise that instead of being a reflection of the complex world we live in, Facebook serves opinions that reinforce your world view. The revelation will weaken Facebook in the short term but my guess is that we enjoy scrolling through the News Feed more than we dislike this fact (TechCrunch)
• conservative politics — a Republican-controlled Congress is going to make things much less liberal
• The Republican party — the media narrative was that the Republican party was undergoing a civil war, turns out it's okay
• the peculiar American democracy — so only 25.5% voted for Trump, 45.6% did not vote and 25.6% for Clinton... only in America the third most popular person can be elected. And that's thanks to this beautiful thing named the electoral college
• Peter Thiel — the Silicon Valley VC who supported Trump will be part of the transition team and help prioritise policies (Bloomberg)
• Russia — to take with a pinch of salt for Putin said mending relations is going to be hard and long (Washington Post)
• China — Trump's purported isolationism could pave the way for a new hegemon
• racists — a racist can become President
• sexists — a sexist can become President

Why Trump won, the succinct edition

Trump won thanks to his anti-establishment message that appealed to the most important demographic: white rural voters (an op-ed by Bernie Sanders in the NYT). Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were blue states in the past elections. Hillary didn’t even campaign in Wisconsin.

There is a growing (and now critical) discrepancy between said white rural voters and urbanites. The media reflects only the life of the latter. Globalisation and multiculturalism don’t sit that well for that key demographic. So take that, add increasing economic inequality and a clever electoral strategy and you have President Trump.

Trump did not want to be President 

Trump is fucking clueless as to what a President does. Actually, he didn’t want to be President. He doesn’t even want to live in the White House (NYT). And he suddenly loves Obama and longs for his wise counsel (CNN on Facebook).

Now, he has to become a politician.

Being anti-system is great for the campaign. But once you’re elected and they give you the CIA file thanks to your newly-acquired security/intelligence clearance, you realise that this whole shit is a bit more complicated than you originally thought.

(By the way, if you’re interested in America’s “deep secrets” with regards to intelligence, this piece casually published in the Washington Post probably won’t relax you (it’s a spine-chilling experience, how can they write that the CIA topples governments so shamelessly?)).

Will Trump aggressively pursue his campaign pledges? 

I don’t know but let’s venture some guesses for the fun of it.

Based on the transcript of his 60 Minutes interview (CBS News), Trump’s campaign persona is being replaced by a more subdued and serious discourse. He appears to be willing to compromise greatly (with regards to gay marriage or prosecuting Hillary for instance). To my eyes, it looks like he’s realising now what it means to be President and he naively feels like he wants to do well. He was saying all these fucked up things to get elected.

When he talked to Obama about the Middle East, he noticed the U.S. paid 6 trillion dollars in the last 10 years there. To Trump’s eyes, this is too much and he’s saying “look at our roads and our bridges”.

If by any chance, Trump decides to use this kind of money to rebuild America and stop militarily intervening across the world, that would be nice, wouldn’t it? Am I being too naive myself?

On the the other hand, Paul Ryan is now strengthened to carry out the Republican agenda. Who will impose his will on the other?

Also, Trump’s chief of staff will be Reince Priebus, the head of the RNC. An establishment figure who will probably soften some of the strongest Trump ideas. The Cabinet will set the tone for Trump’s administration and here’s the NYT’s shortlist. Since the NYT can’t predict shit, it’s a non-binding read.

So will he build the wall, repeal Obamacare or ban muslims from entering the United States? Very, very hard to say, despite all that we’ve read about that already and what Trump is saying right now. It’s not as if he could simply click on some buttons and watch the magic operate. My personal bet is that none of these dramatic things will take place, the institutional homeostasis being too strong (crash course on homeostasis).

The liberal reaction

There’s California wanting to secede from the Union (TechCrunch). An isolationist and privileged response coming from a supposedly open-minded community. Although the electoral college, two-party system is not particularly democratic, this ain’t either. Doing exactly what Texas wanted to do when Obama was reelected in 2012. They truly do live in a bubble.

Then you have people from major cities across the U.S who are protesting. Oddly enough, Trump won fair and square: did he cheat? He is a fucked up human being. A liar, a sexist, a racist. Protesting against him is an understandable short-term move but how will you prevent him from being reelected in 4 years? Why was he elected in the first place? Let us understand the problem and only then, we’ll find a solution.

Short-term problems

Short-term problems that may become long-term are the vindicated crazy, criminal people of the United States who are going to feel free to do whatever comes across their minds. Trump is their president and so they’re going to have the license to do all kinds of fucked up things to people they don’t like. You can check out Shaun King’s Facebook Timeline for info.

What can we do? 

A quick word about sharing news on Facebook. Please stop sharing “dramatic” news events on Facebook to voice your outrage. The more you share, the more media outlets will produce clickbait dramatic news for you to share. Anyway, the people who follow you on Facebook already have the same opinions as you! It’ll make you feel better but it’s a sterile, vicious cycle (Read Nicky Case’s post about that, she’s got some great insight).

Instead: act politically. Volunteer. Experiment. Do something concrete.

Trump took advantage of the economic and cultural situation. The narrative must be reversed. There must be a way for a liberal platform to reach white people’s hearts and minds without sounding naive or weak. Sanders 2020?

The situation in France

Marine Le Pen has slimmer chances of being elected because of the nature of the French electorate as well as the political system. However, Hollande, Juppé, Macron and Valls are representative of the unease white rural voters feel. Quite cleverly indeed, Sarkozy positioned himself as the more legitimate candidate on the right. His anti-establishment message is inspired by Trump (whom he congratulated) and he’s not on the Front National so he’s a better choice than Marine for most French people. Marine will have the best macroeconomic timing imaginable so the political offer must be at least as appealing as she is. Today, it looks quite dire.

Further reading

My former professor shares some insights as to what lies have been demolished since Trump was elected: Sick Chickens.

Why pollsters were wrong [spoiler: low response rates]: Harvard Business Review.

Democrats, Trump, and the Ongoing, Dangerous Refusal to Learn the Lesson of Brexit [favouring of the elite by institutions, accurately analysed by Glenn Greenwald]: The Intercept.

The media’s epic fail [Trump and Brexit as entertainment, the media chased clicks and gave him a lot of free coverage]: The Bureau of Investigative Journalism

Donald Trump Victory: how to tackle the new “nationalist international” [create a progressivist international]: Newsweek

Donald Trump is moving to the White House, and liberals put him there [American liberals are complacent and thought this was going to be an easy win/took the ethical “higher ground” that backfired]: The Guardian

A superb illustrated read about your (and mine) smartphone addiction. You should read it all, it's on Nautilus. 

Pro tip: reward yourself “variably” when doing an analog (i.e not tech) activity such as seeing friends or walking outside. By variably I mean don't reward for a 1:1 ratio. The deal with Facebook is that you scroll aimlessly and then at some point you're going to get a notification but you don't know when. This motivates you to scroll more than if they gave you a reward (notification) every time you scrolled. 

This excerpt is from this paper and was tweeted by Rolf Degen. 

Paresh Dave for The LA Times: 

Backed by more than $20 million in venture capital, Soylent has emerged as one of several popular start-ups hoping to change what and how people eat. Meant to be mixed with water or other liquids, the powder has enough fats, carbohydrates and other nutrients to replace a traditional meal, according to the company. People looking for a quick fix, such as software programmers in Silicon Valley, have become devotees.

Eat real food people? 

Paresh Dave for The LA Times: 

Backed by more than $20 million in venture capital, Soylent has emerged as one of several popular start-ups hoping to change what and how people eat. Meant to be mixed with water or other liquids, the powder has enough fats, carbohydrates and other nutrients to replace a traditional meal, according to the company. People looking for a quick fix, such as software programmers in Silicon Valley, have become devotees.

Eat real food people? 

Eric Barker from a June 2014 Time article: 

Two factors appeared to exercise the greatest influence on personal relationships: the location of the apartments and the distances between them. The most important factor in determining who would be emotionally close to whom was the distance between their apartments.

What underlies this? Obviously, you have to meet, but there’s something else going on: repeated exposure.

As marketers know very well (and anyone looking for love should learn about marketing), repeated exposure makes us like almost anything.

Eric Barker from a June 2014 Time article: 

Two factors appeared to exercise the greatest influence on personal relationships: the location of the apartments and the distances between them. The most important factor in determining who would be emotionally close to whom was the distance between their apartments.

What underlies this? Obviously, you have to meet, but there’s something else going on: repeated exposure.

As marketers know very well (and anyone looking for love should learn about marketing), repeated exposure makes us like almost anything.

[www.youtube.com/watch](httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzIf80eSfCg)

Here's a simple lifehack that could save some lives or injuries.

Open the door with the opposite hand instead of the one closest to the door. That way, your body will be forced to turn and your gaze will meet the road and any incoming cyclist.